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theotherphantom

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#1
06/07/2018 at 17:36

I'm going to look at this a bit more thoroughly when it's all over, but here's some to be going on with.

For each game, I've noted the ranking positions and points of each team, plus the scores and results. That way I can sort them on position and points differences. England's and Denmark's ranking points are marginally different and as both round to the same integer, FIFA list them both as 12th. I've counted England 13th because of the difference.

As I write, there have been 57 games.
- 29 games have been won by the team with the higher rankings.
- 12 games have been drawn, with three of those decided on penalties.
- 16 games have been won by the lower ranked team.

In the last category, Germany, ranked 1st have lost twice; Russia, ranked lowest at 70th, have won twice. Neither of these teams needed to qualify, due to automatic entry as holders and hosts. The ranking system rates competitive games more highly than friendlies, and there is also a hierarchy of competitions. Contributory points for results are dropped once they get to be more years old, but I'd prefer a straight line gradient in these reductions, instead of FIFA's stepped method. Lack of competitive games has affected the Russian ranking, but the German ranking hasn't suffered.

There have, of course, been several games in which the results were essentially irrelevant, resulting in less competitive games.

The biggest overturnings by difference in ranking positions and points so far have been these:

Ranking Points Difference
-1014.82 South Korea 2-0 Germany
-569.05 Mexico 1-0 Germany
-465.22 Japan 2-1 Colombia
-344.63 Senegal 2-1 Poland
-318.82 Sweden 1-0 Switzerland

Ranking Position Difference
-56 South Korea 2-0 Germany
-45 Japan 2-1 Colombia
-26 Nigeria 2-0 Iceland
-25 Russia 3-1 Egypt
-22 Saudi Arabia 2-1 Egypt

Sorting the data by ranking points gives a clearer cut-off on the effect on results than just using the position.

Looking at the top 29 differences, we get
22 wins for the higher ranked side, 3 draws, 4 wins to the lower ranked side.

Looking at the other 28 games,
7 wins for the higher ranked side, 9 draws, and 12 wins to the lower side.

There are three more quarter-finals to come; only the Croatia-Russia game will be in the top section and Croatia should win it. The other two games are in the lower section, so beware if you're betting on either. 

>>>>> 12th season in exile <<<<< 

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NationalTiger

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#2
06/07/2018 at 21:14

Top stattage TOP. 

Now then... 

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essexgull

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#3
06/07/2018 at 21:23

25 years today since Lorena cut off John Wayne's Hampton.

File that stat.


ESSEX GULL 

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theotherphantom

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#4
07/07/2018 at 05:04

On further thought, I've decided that Russia's ranking (70th, 457 raking points) is complete nonsense. In 201, before it plummeted, it they were 24th. If they were 24th now (which Sweden are), they'd have 880 ranking points, and some of the results would make much more sense.

If I take 880 points as their figure, the Croatia-Russia points difference drops to 65. The game with the difference nearest to that was the England-Colombia one. The Denmark-Croatia one had a difference of 106.26. The France-Argentina one had a difference of 43.32. These three were all knockout games; two went to penalties and the other finished 4-3. I'm assuming the Croatia-Russia one really belongs in the lower half. The Belgium-France game has a difference of of 100.19, and the England-Sweden one 170.94.

I'm going out on a limb here; England will win; Croatia-Russia will go to penalties, and Belgium-France will go to penalties. 

>>>>> 12th season in exile <<<<< 

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theotherphantom

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#5
07/07/2018 at 05:07

On the topic of plunging rankings, before the 2014 WC hosted in Brazil, Brazil's ranking had never been below 6, yet it dropped to 18 one year between 2010 and 2014. They reached the 2014 semi-finals. 

>>>>> 12th season in exile <<<<< 

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NationalTiger

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#6
08/07/2018 at 08:20

ShockShockShock

Quote Quote by theotherphantom on 07/07/2018 at 05:04
I'm going out on a limb here; England will win; Croatia-Russia will go to penalties, and Belgium-France will go to penalties.


Shock

Now then... 

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