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candw

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#16
20/03/2019 at 10:27

Quote Quote by TedLloyd on 19/03/2019 at 19:03
Very few free thinkers like Benn amongst the Labour MP's TOP, they all seem to want soft brexit or remain which is not what most of their voters want. Corbyn just plays for a General Election all the time which he wont win if the Independent Group field candidates.


"Most of their voters want a hard Brexit?" You can quote your reference for this statement?

TIG candidates were elected on Labour's manifesto and with the help of dedicated Labour workers. They weren't elected for their intrinsic worth. They are charlatans.

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Obadiah

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#17
20/03/2019 at 14:50

Quote Quote by essexgull on 20/03/2019 at 10:01


Because it is the only deal on the table that allows the UK to leave the EU safely and in the time frame that the UK determined.

ESSEX GULL



It may be the only deal May has given parliament but it isn't the only option open to MPs. Why should they accept a bad deal when they could revoke Article 50, get rid of May and start again?  

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essexgull

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#18
20/03/2019 at 17:47

It's true that there was an option to revoke article 50. I doubt it will happen.There is zero chance that if it is revoked, then issued again, that any deal will be better. The back-stop on Ireland cannot change. It is her deal or no-deal.

Best and most realistic outcome as it stands, I think, is that her deal is passed, she resigns, probably Javid replaces her and Brexit negotiations continue on a calmer level.


ESSEX GULL  

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Obadiah

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#19
20/03/2019 at 21:36

Quote Quote by essexgull on 20/03/2019 at 17:47
It's true that there was an option to revoke article 50. I doubt it will happen.There is zero chance that if it is revoked, then issued again, that any deal will be better. The back-stop on Ireland cannot change. It is her deal or no-deal.

Best and most realistic outcome as it stands, I think, is that her deal is passed, she resigns, probably Javid replaces her and Brexit negotiations continue on a calmer level.


ESSEX GULL


The politics of Northern Ireland will get worse if the 1 million protestants are forced into a united Ireland by Sinn Fein, the EU and the British Tory government.

It seems that every time she opens her mouth she digs the hole a lot bigger. Next week will be interesting.  

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essexgull

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#20
21/03/2019 at 16:30

Quote Quote by Obadiah on 20/03/2019 at 21:36


The politics of Northern Ireland will get worse if the 1 million protestants are forced into a united Ireland by Sinn Fein, the EU and the British Tory government.

It seems that every time she opens her mouth she digs the hole a lot bigger. Next week will be interesting.


I can't speak for protestants in NI. I imagine these days, that many would prefer to be part of Ireland in the EU anyway. Perhaps when they realise the state of the Irish health service, they'll regret it though.

I think her speech was fair. MPs, who don't have a clue about the subject, have been jettisoning the UK's chance of leaving the UK with a deal.

I notice all those who said that the German automotive industry and French wineries would ensure a great deal, have gone very quiet.

ESSEX GULL  

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Obadiah

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#21
21/03/2019 at 19:20

Quote Quote by essexgull on 21/03/2019 at 16:30


I can't speak for protestants in NI. I imagine these days, that many would prefer to be part of Ireland in the EU anyway. Perhaps when they realise the state of the Irish health service, they'll regret it though.

I think her speech was fair. MPs, who don't have a clue about the subject, have been jettisoning the UK's chance of leaving the UK with a deal.

I notice all those who said that the German automotive industry and French wineries would ensure a great deal, have gone very quiet.

ESSEX GULL


Theresa May jettisoned the UK's chances of leaving with a deal by saying its my way and only my way. She tried to square the circle that is the Tory Party and her only tactic now is fear of leaving without a deal.

There is a majority in parliament for a closer relationship with the EU but May hasn't allowed that option to be put because she knows it would split the Tory Party. Its still possible that the UK will end up with a Norway style arrangement if May's plan is voted down next week.

The deal is bad which is why May wants it to be the only one on the table. Unfortunately she has no control over her Party and hasn't offered any carrots for the Blairites in the Labour Party to get them to back her.

Fear is never a good tactic, all it ever leaves is a bitter taste. Interesting times.

 

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NationalTiger

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#22
23/03/2019 at 07:53

Why do MPs keep voting down May's orderly Brexit deal?

One political commentator on breakfast telly put it in layman's terms to the British public while munching their cornflakes.

"If you're house is valued at £250,000 and you were offered £100,000 - would you sell it?

When the exact same offer arrives a second and then a third time, you still wouldn't sell your house, would you?

If you keep asking the same question, you'll get the same answer."


My limited understanding is; May has provided a plan to WITHDRAW from the EU and then negotiate the finer points, thereafter, right? But I accept I could be wrong about that. Please put me right if necessary.

I maintain, no deal is better than a bad deal. Probably. But as I've said all along, I still reckon there's an 11th hour exit in there somewhere. I do admit, it's looking less and likely, though. 

Now then... 

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TedLloyd

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#23
23/03/2019 at 10:27

Yes, May's withdrawal agreement means we continue to pay £39B over 2 years as a divorce bill then we are out.

The hard brexit isn't going to happen but in theory we would have stopped payments from next month.

A Norway deal would mean continuing payments forever without any representation.

So I conclude the best our weak Parliament will now offer is an even softer deal than May's because her government can't unite behind a compromise and its going cross party, with payments eventually stopping after a 2-4 year? timespan narrowly avoiding the even shitter deal Norway has. What was Canada plus plus anyone? Fuck a second referendum or remaining though. May out.
 

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essexgull

8980 posts
First used 12/01/17

#24
23/03/2019 at 15:05

Quote Quote by NationalTiger on 23/03/2019 at 07:53
Why do MPs keep voting down May's orderly Brexit deal?

One political commentator on breakfast telly put it in layman's terms to the British public while munching their cornflakes.

"If you're house is valued at £250,000 and you were offered £100,000 - would you sell it?

When the exact same offer arrives a second and then a third time, you still wouldn't sell your house, would you?

If you keep asking the same question, you'll get the same answer."


My limited understanding is; May has provided a plan to WITHDRAW from the EU and then negotiate the finer points, thereafter, right? But I accept I could be wrong about that. Please put me right if necessary.

I maintain, no deal is better than a bad deal. Probably. But as I've said all along, I still reckon there's an 11th hour exit in there somewhere. I do admit, it's looking less and likely, though.


Yes, just a withdrawal deal - not actual trade, customs, regulatory etc. The deal essentially just maintains that a legal framework is maintained until those points are negotiated. And as Ted correctly points out, involves maintaining payments in line with international obligations. If you want to move out your house, you still have to pay the mortgage on it until it has sold. The reason for this is that the UK has a £250 billion+ annual trade relationship with the EU, if the UK decides to default on the £39 billion over 4 years that it has already agreed to, via the membership of the EU, then this trade relationship could reduce far more than the amount to be paid. Countries and businesses tend to trade less with customers and sellers who have broken and defaulted on previous deals.



ESSEX GULL

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NationalTiger

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#26
24/03/2019 at 09:15

I don't expect our country to default on payment whether it's 2-4 years or otherwise. There is no reason to.

I'm with Ted on this.

Absolutely no to remaining or a second referendum.

Either happens and democracy is dead in the UK. 

Now then... 

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essexgull

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#27
24/03/2019 at 09:42

Well that is the argument for no deal, to renege on these payments as a protest.

I think the likely eventual outcome is a soft Brexit, which is what many, not all, leavers would have voted for - leaving the EU in name, with minimal repercussions, changes and disadvantages to their lives.


ESSEX GULL

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candw

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#28
24/03/2019 at 11:36

As long as we no longer have to have those Poles, everyone will be happy! Eh?

Democracy would be dead if, 3 years after a vote, and following 3 years of shit, people were asked "Did you really vote for this?"

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theotherphantom

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#29
24/03/2019 at 22:34

The whole thing will be in a dusty putrid pile on a pavement in Brussells before the 2020s are over. 

>>>>> 12th season in exile <<<<< 

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essexgull

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#30
25/03/2019 at 10:12

Quote Quote by theotherphantom on 24/03/2019 at 22:34
The whole thing will be in a dusty putrid pile on a pavement in Brussells before the 2020s are over.


It's a stupid argument. Every thing comes to an end eventually, but that doesn't mean that it's not necessarily the best option at this present time. As it stands, it looks like the untied kingdom will be over before the EU.


ESSEX GULL  

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theotherphantom

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#31
26/03/2019 at 23:02

Quote Quote by candw on 24/03/2019 at 11:36
As long as we no longer have to have those Poles, everyone will be happy! Eh?

Democracy would be dead if, 3 years after a vote, and following 3 years of shit, people were asked "Did you really vote for this?"


The first 28 years of my life was spent living next door to a Polish Jewish couple who'd fled the Polish whatever-it-was in 1908, so all that was just normal and unremarkable. 

>>>>> 12th season in exile <<<<< 

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