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Obadiah

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6437 posts
First used 09/01/17

#1
12/12/2018 at 21:53

May announces she's standing down, but not just yet. 

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essexgull

8890 posts
First used 12/01/17

#2
12/12/2018 at 22:08

The ERG were shown up for what they are - hot air. No functional plans were offered or serous challenge made, just whining on the sidelines. JRM and Johnson should be banished from politics and never heard from again.

Looks like May's plan will get pushed through in January and Leavers need to work to make sure that the back stop is never triggered. Her negotiation deal is not very good, but is far better than a no deal Brexit, that would devastate the UK's economy.


ESSEX GULL  

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RichardCheatham - City AFC

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7276 posts
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#3
13/12/2018 at 02:17

Why is a no deal such a problem for the UK and not the EU? 

Bunkers Hill - See you in the next life 

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essexgull

8890 posts
First used 12/01/17

#4
13/12/2018 at 05:48

Because many British exports and services will have to halt immediately and there will be a period of months of products waiting on customs docks, at £700 a day demurrage costs per container, whilst regulatory re-registration takes place - how many UK businesses can wear this? . In the meantime, the EU will cannibalise the business lost - certainly the French will win most of the defence industry and agriculture lost. As farmers won't be able to export, they will go bankrupt.

A lot of lies have been told about leave and remain, but the regulatory aspect will be lost - UK aircraft engineers and licensed pilots won't be qualified anymore as their qualifications were tied into the EU framework. As no preparation has been made for no-deal, this would have to be re-registered with global authorities and take months. UK business and the economy simply can't take 6 months 'off' and in the time lost, most international business would be lost as buyers will go elsewhere.

This is why I believe May's deal will go through or article 50 will be extended. The UK can't afford a no-deal scenario.

The UK had a meltdown when Dierdre Rashid got sent to prison in Coronation Street and KFC ran out of chicken, it could hardly cope with this economic turmoil.


ESSEX GULL  

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Obadiah

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6437 posts
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#5
13/12/2018 at 08:34

May's current deal will only go through with the support of the vast majority of the Labour MPs. There isn't a cat in hell's chance of that happening in January.

The extension (or reversal) of article 50 is more likely. If that happens the eruption in the Tory Party will make the last two years look like a tea party.  

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Hulltim8 City AFC

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#6
13/12/2018 at 09:46

Quote Quote by essexgull on 13/12/2018 at 05:48
Because many British exports and services will have to halt immediately and there will be a period of months of products waiting on customs docks, at £700 a day demurrage costs per container, whilst regulatory re-registration takes place - how many UK businesses can wear this? . In the meantime, the EU will cannibalise the business lost - certainly the French will win most of the defence industry and agriculture lost. As farmers won't be able to export, they will go bankrupt.

A lot of lies have been told about leave and remain, but the regulatory aspect will be lost - UK aircraft engineers and licensed pilots won't be qualified anymore as their qualifications were tied into the EU framework. As no preparation has been made for no-deal, this would have to be re-registered with global authorities and take months. UK business and the economy simply can't take 6 months 'off' and in the time lost, most international business would be lost as buyers will go elsewhere.

This is why I believe May's deal will go through or article 50 will be extended. The UK can't afford a no-deal scenario.

The UK had a meltdown when Dierdre Rashid got sent to prison in Coronation Street and KFC ran out of chicken, it could hardly cope with this economic turmoil.


ESSEX GULL


Demurrage. There's a word I haven't heard much since the days I worked in a shipping office. 

2005 Labour got 355 seats from 35.2 % of the vote on a 62.4% turnout. 2015 Tories got 331 seats from 36.9% of the vote on a 661% turnout. Left wing fannies moan the second one is sooooo unfair and we need electoral reform. But didn't utter a peep,about the first one. 

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Hulltim8 City AFC

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#7
13/12/2018 at 09:51

Quote Quote by Obadiah on 13/12/2018 at 08:34
May's current deal will only go through with the support of the vast majority of the Labour MPs. There isn't a cat in hell's chance of that happening in January.

The extension (or reversal) of article 50 is more likely. If that happens the eruption in the Tory Party will make the last two years look like a tea party.


More Labour MPs voted against Corbyn but he is still here.

It is farcical, really. In charge of negotiations is a PM who is a remainer, with a lot of Remainers in her cabinet and a civil service full of them. And leading the Opposition we have someone who has been a Leaver for decades. 

2005 Labour got 355 seats from 35.2 % of the vote on a 62.4% turnout. 2015 Tories got 331 seats from 36.9% of the vote on a 661% turnout. Left wing fannies moan the second one is sooooo unfair and we need electoral reform. But didn't utter a peep,about the first one. 

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RichardCheatham - City AFC

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7276 posts
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#8
13/12/2018 at 12:59

I might be wrong here but doesn’t the UK import more than it exports (re the EU, not RoW)?

So Latvia will buy the 5 Series BMW we no longer take from Herr Kraut and Estonia will drink the French wine the UK would normally consume from Le Frogs (translated, the frogs).

All arsing around aside, it won’t work on either side of the fence. I accept that there may be a loss in agriculture but farming has been subsidised for years anyway and when was the last piece of steel exported from Scunts to Poland.

Not saying it’s going to be easy but I’m not convinced it will be armageddon either if there is no deal. And fooook me, an alternative might be Corbyn, Ronald McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry? Cry

Bunkers Hill - See you in the next life 

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The Prince of Munster

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First used 20/01/17

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#9
13/12/2018 at 14:58

I still think there’s a very high probability the UK will not leave the EU. Despite the vote I’ve always thought this. And there’s a good chance there’ll be another referendum.

I’m more surprised the initial result wasn’t used as a bargaining tool for movement on some concessions.

I really don’t think life will grind to a halt in a no deal scenario. 

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essexgull

8890 posts
First used 12/01/17

#10
13/12/2018 at 17:17

Quote Quote by RichardCheatham - City AFC on 13/12/2018 at 12:59
I might be wrong here but doesn’t the UK import more than it exports (re the EU, not RoW)?

So Latvia will buy the 5 Series BMW we no longer take from Herr Kraut and Estonia will drink the French wine the UK would normally consume from Le Frogs (translated, the frogs).

All arsing around aside, it won’t work on either side of the fence. I accept that there may be a loss in agriculture but farming has been subsidised for years anyway and when was the last piece of steel exported from Scunts to Poland.

Not saying it’s going to be easy but I’m not convinced it will be armageddon either if there is no deal. And fooook me, an alternative might be Corbyn, Ronald McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry? Cry


Under a no-deal situation, the EU wouldn't place any restrictions on exporting to a 'third country' - why should they. The UK government could place tariffs on EU imports (as Norway does), but then the reaction of the British people to increased costs on cars, food etc. would be to vote the government out that put the taxes on them. This is where the Remainer media and personalities are wrong - importing, aside from cost increases/decreases due to currency, wouldn't be a huge problem - the UK has imported EU goods under a regulatory framework for 40 years, so there would be little worry of drugs being fake or meat being from x etc.

The issues are entirely with exports of goods and services and falling out the regulatory and licensing framework - EU countries simply can't import goods from non-registered/classified 'third' countries from which they have no standard agreements with, because that would effectively be poisoning the single market. As no no-deal situation has been prepared the UK economy would be screwed. For example, UK drivers can drive in the EU with their driving licenses because it falls under EU registration - if the UK leaves with no deal, all UK driving license holders immediately lose the right to drive in the EU until some sort of agreement is made... and this applies to thousands of differing rules across the economy. The civil service and government simply aren't competent enough to resolve this in under a year.

I don't think there would be armageddon either, but it would be extremely inconvenient for many, lose many a lot of money and wipe a lot off the UK economy. Any government that pushes through a no-deal brexit would not see power again for many years due to the following recession. That's why I think no-deal won't happen and that JRM and Johnson know this and are using the fact that it will never/can't happen as their leadership push.

The last 2.5 years in the UK has shown the complete incompetency of the UK political class - fighting amongst themselves whilst the rest of the world has been taking the urine at the UK's expense. Somehow the UK has made France look competent.

If May's deal is rejected, as Obadiah believes (I no longer know enough about UK politicians clearly), I think article 50 will be postponed.


ESSEX GULL 

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RichardCheatham - City AFC

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7276 posts
First used 09/01/17

#11
14/12/2018 at 09:29

If it’s as clear cut as you say re a no deal, why all the hot air and bullshit from commentators (not Brain Moore or Gerald Sinstdat admittedly) and, more so, politicians on all sides? Surely David Davies has to return his salary for the time he spent drinking covfefe on the Eurostar and having his knob polished ina Brussels brothel (allegedly,so National doesn’t get a legal letter), because he never said a no deal needs to be prepared for, rather than sticking ones head up ones own arse and hoping the world will be ok.

My view, postpone it for a year and put in place drivers licenses and other shit that needs to be done so the traffic lights still work, them tell the Eu to fook right off. I’m saying this from a very safe distance, but that said, I don’t see borderless countries in Asia. Singapore imports everything. Containers in and out work like clockwork. It’s doable this no deal thang. 

Bunkers Hill - See you in the next life 

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candw

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26416 posts
First used 09/01/17

#12
14/12/2018 at 10:12

I don't see the hurry to leave for the Ruling Party. Inside EU they have still managed to virtually do away with the Welfare State, the workers are docile, even though many wages can't be lived on and are lower now than 10 years ago, the NHS will be sold off quite soon and only the sick will pay for their sickness.

What utter hell is Rees-Mogg planning for our nation if he is worried the EU might hamper his plans for the future? Happily, my future under "Trumpist" type liberty is likely to be fairly short.

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Hulltim8 City AFC

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#13
14/12/2018 at 13:15

Quote Quote by candw on 14/12/2018 at 10:12
I don't see the hurry to leave for the Ruling Party. Inside EU they have still managed to virtually do away with the Welfare State, the workers are docile, even though many wages can't be lived on and are lower now than 10 years ago, the NHS will be sold off quite soon and only the sick will pay for their sickness.

What utter hell is Rees-Mogg planning for our nation if he is worried the EU might hamper his plans for the future? Happily, my future under "Trumpist" type liberty is likely to be fairly short.


More liberty under Trump than some places I could mention.

2005 Labour got 355 seats from 35.2 % of the vote on a 62.4% turnout. 2015 Tories got 331 seats from 36.9% of the vote on a 661% turnout. Left wing fannies moan the second one is sooooo unfair and we need electoral reform. But didn't utter a peep,about the first one. 

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candw

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26416 posts
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#14
14/12/2018 at 15:36

And you live in most of them, I suppose? If I were you I'd move back to England.

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essexgull

8890 posts
First used 12/01/17

#15
14/12/2018 at 16:22

Quote Quote by candw on 14/12/2018 at 10:12
I don't see the hurry to leave for the Ruling Party. Inside EU they have still managed to virtually do away with the Welfare State, the workers are docile, even though many wages can't be lived on and are lower now than 10 years ago, the NHS will be sold off quite soon and only the sick will pay for their sickness.

What utter hell is Rees-Mogg planning for our nation if he is worried the EU might hamper his plans for the future? Happily, my future under "Trumpist" type liberty is likely to be fairly short.


Rees Mogg is a typical coward in the vein of Johnson - squawks from the sidelines, but doesn't have the minerals to go for the leadership. Neither of them has shown any indication of what their Brexit plan would be.

The EU has pulled an absolute number on May - hardly the actions of Allies and evidence of how the wool has been pulled over the publics' eyes over the last few decades on how dependent the system is on everyone obeying. All this will eventually do is weaken support within the EU for the EU of the disenchanted workers - ie. low paid, over taxed. I was talking to a teacher relative earlier this week who simply can't afford to have children on her and her husband's salary - they don't earn enough to cover the rent on one salary, nor pay for childcare on two. It seems that modern day Europe subsidises the extreme poor and extreme wealthy and takes from the in-betweens to cover this. We're all mugs.


ESSEX GULL 

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